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July 01, 2009

not everything is stats

For the many reasons I chose to do this work, I have more that tells me, it's time to move on.

I believe that I should always be reaching out for new challenges, not so much opportunities, but challenges. However, because I have a good team with me, I hang on. If there is money to be made, then let's hang on. But it doesn't stop my mind from thinking about other options.

Perhaps that's what makes me more intrusive and less patient - I have this need to see a greater picture and when I get a peep and it doesn't look great, I'll move along to another pasture.

With the past 2 weeks moving at a grilling pace - simply because we were working on 3 deals at a time, I couldn't help but think about keeping the pace but exploring other areas of work - not in the same industry. Being in the real estate business, means nothing these days, it's the same shit coming out from different holes and whether we succeed or not, would depend on how well our toilet bowl functions. I can accept changing market conditions and tough calls to make, but when an owner becomes greedy and validates that with statements like BANKS DO NOT KNOW HOW TO DO VALUATION, then it upsets me. There cannot be a market, if there are no financial institutions to back up the business. As with all organisations, Banks have a right to be conservative - we should respect that because if we were licensed to lend, we would do the same, when the market moves - rises and falls - in a blink of an eye.

To make things worse, this seller refuted the offer by saying he's a statistician and he's more correct.

Well, stats is stats - it's not reality when we are doing a forecast. Retrospective summaries are respected, but it cannot be used as a definate causal factor until the theory has been proven - and where market dynamics are concerned, it just cannot be done.

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